Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $44,440$ on 2020-06-10
Best fit exponential: \(5.32 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(26.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{40,653.0}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 45.3)}}\) (asimptote \(40,653.0\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $3,720$ on 2020-06-10
Best fit exponential: \(236 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(20.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,763.3}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 56.6)}}\) (asimptote \(3,763.3\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $18,858$ on 2020-06-10
Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $772,416$ on 2020-06-10
Best fit exponential: \(9.37 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(13.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,498,573.8}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 85.3)}}\) (asimptote \(1,498,573.8\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $39,680$ on 2020-06-10
Best fit exponential: \(1.12 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{52,880.2}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 67.6)}}\) (asimptote \(52,880.2\))
Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $318,820$ on 2020-06-10
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $208,823$ on 2020-06-10
Best fit exponential: \(4.96 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(16.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{288,315.2}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 75.7)}}\) (asimptote \(288,315.2\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $5,903$ on 2020-06-10
Best fit exponential: \(197 \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(16.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,456.4}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 66.1)}}\) (asimptote \(7,456.4\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $104,889$ on 2020-06-10
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $148,456$ on 2020-06-10
Best fit exponential: \(1.31 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(13.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{336,768.5}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 95.2)}}\) (asimptote \(336,768.5\))
Start date 2020-03-23 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $2,475$ on 2020-06-10
Best fit exponential: \(10.8 \times 10^{0.029t}\) (doubling rate \(10.4\) days)
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $24,201$ on 2020-06-10
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $15,281$ on 2020-06-10
Best fit exponential: \(118 \times 10^{0.025t}\) (doubling rate \(11.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{28,889.5}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 83.3)}}\) (asimptote \(28,889.5\))
Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $512$ on 2020-06-10
Best fit exponential: \(14.9 \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,219.7}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 78.2)}}\) (asimptote \(1,219.7\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $12,508$ on 2020-06-10
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $42,206$ on 2020-06-10
Best fit exponential: \(840 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{135,663.7}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 101.6)}}\) (asimptote \(135,663.7\))
Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,439$ on 2020-06-10
Best fit exponential: \(65.3 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,088.5}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 98.1)}}\) (asimptote \(5,088.5\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $24,201$ on 2020-06-10
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $25,987$ on 2020-06-10
Best fit exponential: \(493 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.2\) days)
Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $735$ on 2020-06-10
Best fit exponential: \(58.8 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,088.3}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 67.7)}}\) (asimptote \(1,088.3\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $17,261$ on 2020-06-10
Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $847$ on 2020-06-10
Best fit exponential: \(264 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(47.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{816.7}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 27.9)}}\) (asimptote \(816.7\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $23$ on 2020-06-10
Best fit exponential: \(6.97 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(37.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{23.0}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 25.4)}}\) (asimptote \(23.0\))
Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $66$ on 2020-06-10
